<< ABILITY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE: >>
What if you had the ability to predict the future?
Imagine if you could:
-- know how key groups in your community could react to your position.
-- anticipate your Adversary's reaction to your move.
-- have a good idea on what angle the media would take on your action.
-- have a sense of how the public could respond.
With this information you could see and avoid many potential problems.
<< ROLE PLAYING: KEY TO VALUABLE INSIGHT INTO THE FUTURE: >>
Through the use of Role Playing you can begin to anticipate the
reaction of key groups to your group's contemplated actions. You can
predict
to a surprising degree if your action or position will produce the
desired
results. How? By carefully studying the influences and pressures on
each of
the key groups involved in your issue and putting yourself `in their
shoes',
you can begin to see how they think and feel. By gathering more information
on how each of the key groups acted in the past you can come to know
them
better and improve the accuracy of your predictions.
KEY QUESTION: IF I WAS IN THEIR SITUATION, WHAT WOULD I DO?
This powerful technique is based on a simple principle: people react
to the pressures and influences of their situation in predictable ways.
In
any given situation there are only a limited number of options available.
To
the extent that you can accurately `put yourself in the shoes' of each
of the
key groups and gain insight into how they think and feel, you can have
a
pretty good idea what options are available to them and which ones
they are
most likely to choose. This is the key to success in Role Playing.
The more
you use the Role Playing technique the easier it will be to see things
from
their point of view.
ROLE PLAYING GIVES POWERFUL ADVANTAGES.
It allows you to:
1) Avoid making critical (and often irreversible) mistakes in public.
2) Be prepared for immediate reaction to the press or your Adversary
by
having prepared responses to questions and actions you anticipated
through Role Playing.
3) Develop better alternatives than your original planned actions.
4) Anticipate and be prepared for the next round of moves and set the
stage for long range plans by learning to see a few moves ahead.
ROLE PLAYING AN ENJOYABLE ACTIVITY
Many people find Role Playing an enjoyable part of working with their
group. By involvement in Role Playing, people often discover abilities
that
they rarely use and then enjoy going on to develop new skills in this
area.
The excitement and feeling of accomplishment in accurately predicting
the
behavior of a key group is great incentive to continue working with
this
technique. People are often surprised to find that developing the Role
Playing technique can give valuable insight into other areas of their
lives.
SETUP FOR ROLE PLAYING: IDENTIFY KEY GROUPS
What people and groups are likely to be effected by (or interested
in)
this issue? You will need to sit down in your Core Group and identify
the key
groups likely to be involved and define their relationship to the issue
and
to the other key groups.
KEY GROUPS LIKELY TO BE INVOLVED:
Key groups are likely to come from the following categories:
ADVERSARY: strongly committed to the point of view that causes you
concern.
PEOPLE LEANING TOWARDS YOUR ADVERSARY: people or groups with a strong
motive
to move towards your Adversary's position.
AGENCIES INVOLVED: Often various government agencies are directly or
indirectly involved in the process of resolving an issue. Define their
roles.
(ie: Town Boards, Planning Boards, County Legislatures, State agencies,
etc.)
INTERESTED PEOPLE AND GROUPS: Who is likely to be effected by or interested
in this issue? Groups of people may be involved by occupation, economic
class, neighborhood, ethnic background, common interest, and other
factors.
THE PUBLIC: The average person not directly involved in the issue.
How would
they view your involvement in the issue? Anticipate public opinion.
THE MEDIA: Newspapers, radio, TV and local publications. At first,
concentrate your attention on your local and regional newspapers.
After establishing yourself, you can begin to expand your focus as
needed.
(NOTE: Issues of public concern involve a number of aspects that need
detailed explanation. They are best presented initially through the
written
word. Because newspapers are not limited by the `on-air' time constraints
of radio and TV, they are well suited to present an in-depth coverage
of the
issue.)
EXAMPLE: IDENTIFY THE KEY GROUPS INVOLVED:
A citizens group, concerned with a military low altitude flight path
proposed for their rural area, initially identified the following Key
Groups
to consider in their Role Playing Sessions:
ADVERSARY: Branch of the military involved.
PEOPLE LEANING TOWARDS YOUR ADVERSARY: Veterans' Groups.
AGENCIES INVOLVED: The State Department of Environmental Conservation
was
involved because Environmental Review procedures applied. The flights
crossed a number of towns in the County, so the County Planning Office
was
also involved.
INTERESTED PEOPLE AND GROUPS FROM THE COMMUNITY: The people most impacted
were those under the proposed flight path. It was a rural area, and
it was
decided that 2 groups of people were involved: Farmers (mostly dairy)
and
Rural Non-farm people.
THE PUBLIC: Both rural and townspeople.
MEDIA: There were a number of local and regional newspapers, one with
strong
leanings towards the military, that needed to be considered for Role
Playing. A local radio station was also included because important
deadlines
for a comment period needed to be announced.
IMAGINE YOURSELF AS A MEMBER OF EACH KEY GROUP: WHAT MOTIVATES THEM?
Once you've identified the groups involved, then decide what motivates
them to be involved in this issue. Sit down in your Core Group and
consider
each Key Group separately by putting yourself `in their shoes'. Imagine
the
pressures that the group is experiencing. What would your concerns
be
regarding this issue if you were a member of this group?
EXAMPLE: KEY GROUP FARMERS:
In the low altitude flight issue, dairy farmers were under a lot of
economic pressure at this time with low prices for milk and high input
costs.
The general conditions were long hours at low pay with not much prospect
for
improvement. Many farmers were selling their family farms at low prices.
Under these conditions it would be unlikely that farmers would be involved
in
an issue unless directly effected by it. How would low altitude flights
effect farming? Would the `startle effect' of the flights cause injury
to
livestock or cause loss of milk production or cause dangers for those
working
around machinery? Research was needed to determine how much of a problem
this
would be.
Conclusion: Under the present conditions, farmers were not likely to
become
involved in this issue unless it could be demonstrated that they would
be
directly impacted. If the potential for negative impact could be demonstrated
then the farmers most effected could be highly motivated to take action.
ROLE PLAYING BASED ON YOUR EXPERIENCE:
The first step in Role Playing is based on putting yourself in the
Key
Group's place. Your understanding is based on your experience and your
ability to imagine the pressures they are under. In addition, you may
have
friends or relatives that come from that group and you can imagine
how they
would react. Often a surprising amount of information can be gained
this way
by drawing on all the members of your Core Group for input.
There are times when you will need to Role Play certain groups in more
depth and detail for a better understanding. In that case you would
then go
outside your Core Group to gather more information. (See next section)
< SUMMARY 6 > ROLE PLAYING: PUTTING YOURSELF IN THEIR SHOES:
<< ABILITY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE: >>
What if you had the ability to predict the future?
Imagine if you could:
-- know how key groups in your community could react to your position.
-- anticipate your Adversary's reaction to your move.
-- have a good idea on what angle the media would take on your action.
-- have a sense of how the public could respond.
With this information you could see and avoid many potential problems.
<< ROLE PLAYING: KEY TO VALUABLE INSIGHT INTO THE FUTURE: >>
Through the use of Role Playing you can begin to anticipate the
reaction of key groups to your group's contemplated actions. You can
predict
to a surprising degree if your action or position will produce the
desired
results. How? By carefully studying the influences and pressures on
each of
the key groups involved in your issue and putting yourself `in their
shoes',
you can begin to see how they think and feel. By gathering more information
on how each of the key groups acted in the past you can come to know
them
better and improve the accuracy of your predictions.